Monday, July 21, 2008

Actions Speak Louder Than Words. Sorry.


"Anybody can make loans. But banks are finding the problem right now is getting the money back." Can you say duhh? I mean, really; isn't that obvious? According to what we're seeing in the financial markets, it certainly does appear as though the banks have forgotten this fundamental principle. This article speaks to the efforts made by the Fed and Treasury to shore-up investor confidence in the financials, but when greater and greater exuberance among the banks is revealed, I don't think that any positive thinking can outweigh the market's pessimism.

Unfortunately for the government, actions speak louder than words and investors aren't going to jump back into the financials en mass before this industry demonstrates that it's learned something from this latest economic bubble and has very clear direction on how to surface once again. The government's efforts to combat speculation (or better phrased, manipulation) by short-traders and commodity futures traders and its support of Freddie and Fannie, are positive and likely necessary, but it's just not enough. These sorts of acts may keep us out of a modern depression, but they're sure not going to prevent a recession.

Almost comical, SEC's Chairman Cox's statements about how he intends to reveal unfounded rumors are just unrealistic. The markets already do a good job of uncovering untruths, but it simply takes time. Sometimes that required time is calculated in minutes and seconds, but in a global economy, this short window of time can represents billions of dollars traded worldwide. Again, such recognition by the government that rumours do possess the power to move markets is good and their intentions, too, are positive. That said, their ability to do anything about it is nil and beyond satisfying some concerns among unsophisticated investors, these sorts of statements will do nothing to help stabilize the markets or the economy. The unhappy truth is that it will take time. The economy didn't fall into this mess overnight and it won't recover that quickly either. Sorry.

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