Thursday, June 26, 2008

Competition & Deregulation Fight Stagflation Part 2

Sometimes it seems as though there's a counter-argument for every argument; isn't it great! I just finished writing how competition and deregulation was working to prevent inflationary pressures from spiraling out of control and then I read this article that made me rethink my position, again. I still believe that competition and deregulation are in-fact working to keep those pressures under control, but I neglected to consider the effects of rising fuel prices on the extent to which that competition can take place.

There's no doubt that communications technologies enable for a great deal of competition in the services sectors, but that's going to have a lot less of an impact on the manufacturing side of the economy. Ultimately, manufacturers have too get their goods into a market before they can sell them there and the rising cost of oil has made that far more expensive. The result is that domestically produced goods are just a little more attractive and the demand for those goods, as a consequence, is just a little higher. This higher demand for domestic manufacturing empowers laborers just a little more and makes wage-hikes just that much more likely. As I've written before, rising wages is the key influential factor driving inflation.

So where do the scales balance? Good question; it's anyone's guess really. I will say that the forces of competition and deregulation are not going away, but the oil price bubble may very well disappear. What happens then?

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