Hillary Clinton $11 million in the Red - Personally!

From my years of watching The West Wing I knew about the campaign finance provision that allows candidates to loan personal funds to their campaigns. What I didn't know, however, was that there was a time limit for by when the candidate can recoup those loans by raising money as a candidate. That time limit is their party's nomination. With the August democratic convention nearing, Clinton has only a few months reaming to come-up with a whopping $11 million that she has loaned to her campaign!

Why is this interesting? Well, on the surface it's interesting to hear the kinds of sums of money that are involved - even as a personal loan from a candidate. The real news, however, is what this may mean for the democratic race for the nomination. Depending on how significant $11 million is to the Clintons, Mrs. Clinton may be tempted to back-out of the race and back Mr. Obama in exchange for some financial support. This, of course, would end the inter-party bickering and allow Mr. Obama to finally set his sights on the White House. Of course, having earned over $100 million since the start of this decade, the Clinton's aren't exactly struggling - even if they do need to walk away from their loan.

The law states that Mr. Obama would not be able to help Mrs. Clinton directly, but there is nothing that prevents him from looking to his record-breaking fundraising base to do so. Of course, with his own need to raise further funds in preparation for the national campaign following the convention, he may hold his own interests in priority to those of his rival.

Money makes the world go around. The same is true for politics. The fact that Mrs. Clinton is having difficulty raising funds and has had to resort to personal loans means that she has lost support among her backers. This, of course, is an indicator of where that support may have gone. With Mr. Obama now leading in both the super delegate race as well as the popular vote, it's not difficult to put one-and-one together.

What's driving the price of Oil?

We've all cringed at the sight of the prices at the pumps, but what's driving the staggering and persistent climb? Demand? Unlikely. If it were demand, then how could it have changed so dramatically in such a short period of time? Sure, China is certainly demanding more than before; China, as big as it is, however, is still not big enough to sway world demand to the extent that we've seen in the past year. So what is it?

Yes, I know, everyone's got politics on the tip of their tongue. The truth is, that that's probably a big factor. The even greater truth, however, is that this is really the underlying factor - the real cause of the rise in price is speculation. That's right; folks like you and I, investors, buying-up contracts in the belief that prices will continue to rise. The funny thing is that it becomes a circular and self-fulfilling prophecy. Although we all complain about the rising price, we too might be responsible for those very prices.

There is a silver lining, at least for those of us who are speculating. For said investors [speculators], they're hedging their increased pumping fees by profiting for those same rising prices in the capital markets. If you've ever studied economics, then you'll quickly be reminded of the Prisoner's Dilemma. Although its in our interest, collectively, to quit the speculation, we are best served individually by joining-in on the free-for-all in the futures market. Like the saying goes: if you can't beat 'em, join 'em.

Obama's Mailing List - It's not what you know...

I read an interesting article on Bloombert (here's the link) that spoke about Barack Obama's most valuable asset developed over the course of his Presidential campaign: his mailing list. Two million people have not only sent Mr. Obama their hard earned money, but they have given him, and his campaign, their personal contact information - information that may prove to be Mr. Obama's ace-in-the-hole regardless of the outcome of the Democratic convention.

Via his own website as well as via social networking websites like Facebook and MySpace, Barack Obama has a marketing database that has allowed him to fill stadiums with supporters from coast-to-coast. Whether as a gold mine for future candidates looking to raise funds or as a powerful communication tool, the article goes on to explain how this mailing list will make him a power broker in the Democratic party for years to come. The only real thing that's surprising about this, however, is that it took the politicians this long to figure out what every teenager new already for years.

It's who you know and Mr. Obama knows a lot of people willing to part with their money in support of a candidate that they favor. He also happens to know a few techies. Chris Hughes, a 24-year-old Facebook co-founder is a full-time campaign staffer and helped create Mr. Obama's own website. Via the site, they've put every new member to work as a member of the campaign creating a quasi-pyramid scheme working to build on the campaign's success.

You really have to commend the Obama campaign for taking advantage of the tools out there. There's no way to know how much of a role this has played in the differential between the Obama and Clinton campaigns, but the fact that the Barack Obama Facebook site has about 5-times the number of friends is hard to overlook.

Now, from the perspective of a business guy, how can this approach to building a brand help other businesses and business people?