Thursday, May 8, 2008

Vallejo, California's Bankruptcy 'Unrelated' to Sub-Prime Lending?

Yesterday's big economic news, as far as I'm concerned, was that a town in California would be filing for bankruptcy. As the announcers were saying it, they adamantly followed-up each and every statement clarifying that this was not the result of the wide-spread sub-prime lending problems plaguing the rest of the country. ...how is this not related? Who are they kidding?

I'm the first to support the notion that the government, via the media, should do what it can to keep confidence levels up and maintain positive future prospects among the citizenry. That said, there's a point at which doing so can be more harmful than good. This is one of those moments.

People are funny. They watch the news in segments - disconnected segments. In one segment, an economist will be warning people of rising unemployment, growing concerns over inflation and work diligently to avoid saying the R-word (recession). In the very next segment, albeit after a regularly scheduled commercial break, the well-dressed financiers will excite everyone while quoting statistics from the latest rally sparked by news of higher sales volumes. How is it that no one connects the two segments to provide people with a more complete picture of what's going on in America?

Rising sales - sure, it's possible. Of course, the question is how are those sales being financed? With interest rates at 2%, I bet that you could guess! With the decline of home values to record lows, the average person's wealth has diminished dramatically. All the while, these same people are taking-on more and more debt, forgetting that unemployment is rising and their job security may not be there a month or week later. Then, ask yourself what happens when those individuals and families with all that debt lose their jobs and have zero (or negative) home equity. What happens to those individuals and families when interest rates begin to rise again and the cost of all that debt increases on them? I bet you could guess that too...

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